Liberał ma związane ręce. (Gazeta Wyborcza)

23 lipca 2018

Jeśli Trzaskowski wygra w Warszawę, to tylko dzięki samemu sobie. Kampania toczy się poza partią, bez wsparcia ratusza i wbrew krytycznym mediom.

Bój o Warszawę ma dla obu stron znaczenie strategiczne. To nie są zwyczajne wybory lokalne, lecz fundamentalne, symboliczne starcie rządzących z opozycją. Starcie idei, programów, aparatów partyjnych, mediów i sztabów wyborczych.

Symbole są w polityce kluczowe. Wyborcy lubią głosować na wygrywające formacje. Warszawa może wyznaczyć ton wszystkich pozostałych wyborów: do europarlamentu, parlamentarnych i prezydenckich. Faworyt będzie tylko jeden i to wynik w stolicy będzie miał zasadniczy wpływ na to, kto nim zostanie w oczach opinii publicznej.
PiS i jego przybudówki mają w tym starciu przewagę. Patryk Jaki może te wybory jedynie wygrać. Gdy przegra, z porażki zrobi sukces, chwaląc się wysokim wynikiem osiągniętym w bastionie przeciwnika.

PO: scenariusz Komorowskiego

Taktyka partii rządzącej przypomina wybory prezydenckie. Wystawiamy młodego, ambitnego kandydata z niskimi szansami na wygraną. Jak przegra, będzie to jego porażka: nie miał szans, młody, niedoświadczony. Jeśli wygra, będzie to fundamentalne zwycięstwo partii na drodze do całkowitej hegemonii.
Platforma ma trudniej. Wygrana w Warszawie popularnego, rzutkiego, młodego i świetnie rozpoznawalnego polityka wydaje się naturalna. Przegrana będzie dla partii klęską. PO prostu nie może tych wyborów przegrać.
Niestety, analogii między wyborami na prezydenta Warszawy a ostatnią elekcją prezydenta RP jest więcej. W Platformie panuje przekonanie, że wystawienie Rafała Trzaskowskiego jest elementem wewnątrzpartyjnej gry. Grzegorz Schetyna nie jest charyzmatycznym przywódcą. Jego przywództwo opiera się wyłącznie na umiejętności prowadzenia personalnych rozgrywek. Przewodniczący PO przypomina raczej kadrowego niż wizjonera.
W ostatnich wyborach na przewodniczącego tej partii szerokie grono działaczy wysuwało Trzaskowskiego na lidera, który mógłby tchnąć w skostniałe struktury nową ideę, natchnąć zniechęconych działaczy nadzieją, poprowadzić partię do zwycięstwa. Nacisk był tak powszechny, że Schetyna poczuł się zagrożony. Trzaskowski nie wystartował. Prominentny działacz PO mówi: – To było dla Rafała zbyt wcześnie, choć mógł to wygrać.

Ludzie zbliżeni do sztabu kandydata Platformy tak dziś oceniają sytuację:
– To pułapka. Chodzi o to, by Rafał wygrał z bardzo niewielką przewagą. Powtarzamy scenariusz Komorowskiego. Gdy zanadto urósł, partia zrobiła wszystko, by podciąć mu skrzydła. Jak widać, nader skutecznie. Ten sam scenariusz powtarza się w Warszawie. Niby jest sztab, ale w stu procentach obsadzony przez ludzi Schetyny. Niby jest budżet, ale mały i całkowicie zamrożony. Każdy kwit akceptuje przewodniczący, a ponieważ nie akceptuje, to kampanii praktycznie nie ma. Jesteśmy skazani na porażkę. Chyba że uda nam się wygrać te wybory wbrew partii, opierając się na entuzjazmie i zaangażowaniu ludzi. Mówiąc wprost, Schetyna może nie przeżyć zdecydowanego zwycięstwa Trzaskowskiego w Warszawie. Jedynie Rafał będzie dysponował prawdziwym mandatem społecznym. Dodając jego intelektualną sprawność, zapał, pracowitość i zdolności przywódcze – on jest naturalnym liderem PO. Najlepszym scenariuszem dla Grzegorza jest zwycięstwo o włos. To utemperuje konkurenta i potwierdzi siłę partii. Nawet porażka jest mniej politycznie groźna dla Schetyny niż zdecydowane zwycięstwo. Grzegorz woli być kapitanem tonącego statku, niż zejść z mostka i obserwować, jak inni wygrywają.

Znany działacz PO potwierdza: – Pomocy w tej kampanii nie ma. Zresztą moja partia nie istnieje. Dryfujemy. Jeśli kampania Trzaskowskiego ma być probierzem ogólnopolskiej walki o rząd dusz, to jest słabo. Przegramy.

Trzaskowski: jestem na cenzurowanym

Rafał Trzaskowski zdecydowanie zaprzecza tym opiniom. – To mit. Myślałem, że już dawno umarł – mówi. – Teraz, gdy role zostały rozdane, mam pełne wsparcie Grzegorza Schetyny. On ma świadomość, że aby wygrać wybory parlamentarne, musimy wygrać w Warszawie. Płyniemy w jednej łódce.

Trzaskowski nie ukrywa rozgoryczenia, ale nie wobec własnej partii, lecz liberalnych mediów.
– W partii jest pełne poparcie, gorzej z medialnym establishmentem – tam nie ma taryfy ulgowej. Ci sami ludzie, którzy kiedyś mnie namawiali do startu, teraz kręcą nosem na każde moje posunięcie. Tak pewnie musi być, bo każdy chce pokazać, że jest bardzo krytyczny i niezależny.
Opisując swoją sytuację, używa retoryki wojennej: „ostrzał”, „okopy”, „atak” i „obrona”.
– Wiadomo było, że będzie trudno, nie ma się co skarżyć. Wiadomo było, że będę pod ciągłym ostrzałem. Przykład? Park wokół Pałacu Kultury: – Gdy parę miesięcy dałem tweeta, że więcej zieleni wokół PKiN to dobry kierunek, nastąpiła ostra krytyka – że bzdura, populizm, nie znam zobowiązań miasta itp. Gdy to samo powiedział Jan Śpiewak, wszyscy mu przyklasnęli. Wspaniały pomysł. Tak to działa. Ja, jako kandydat w pełni merytoryczny, jestem na cenzurowanym.
– Wszyscy spodziewali się jakościowej zmiany, epickiej konfrontacji z PiS. Teraz, gdy prowadzę kampanię lokalną opartą na lokalnych warszawskich postulatach, czują się zawiedzeni. Gdy mówię o polityce ogólnopolskiej, krytykują, że nie prowadzę kampanii lokalnej. Ja wiem, o czym chcę mówić – o mieście, o współrządzeniu z warszawiakami, z poziomu ulicy. O otwartości i szacunku dla najbardziej potrzebujących, o seniorach, edukacji, zieleni, komunikacji, sporcie i kulturze.
– Poczekajmy na inaugurację kampanii, bo na razie media nie są na serio zainteresowane tematami, które nurtują warszawiaków. Te pisowskie – wiadomo – atakują, ile wlezie, codziennie nowy fake news, kłamstwo i manipulacja. Media niezależne natomiast tematów warszawskich nie podchwytują, powtarzając parę wytartych sloganów o mało ekscytującej kampanii.
– Media krytyczne wobec rządu powtarzają slogany pisowskiej propagandy. Dziennikarze tzw. naszych mediów, gdy przychodzą na wywiad, zadają te same pytania. I znowu, zamiast mówić o Warszawie, o wizji miasta, muszę się tłumaczyć, że nie jestem z Krakowa, że z reprywatyzacją nie miałem nic wspólnego… I tak w koło Macieju.

Jaki – kibic Legii

Media rzeczywiście wydają się chwalić kampanię Jakiego i krytykują z mniejszym lub większym naciskiem kampanię kandydata liberalnego.
A obóz przeciwny jest niebywale zdyscyplinowany. Patryk Jaki konsekwentnie wykorzystuje w kampanii wszystkie zasoby – zwłaszcza swoją pozycję w rządzie. Przypisuje sobie zasługi resortu sprawiedliwości, przedstawiając siebie jako polityka zdeterminowanego, skutecznego,„sprawczego”.

W Warszawie przynależność do PiS i jego posłusznej koalicji jest traktowana jako okoliczność obciążająca, więc Jaki nie eksponuje swojej rodzimej partii, którą mało kto od PiS odróżnia. Solidarna Polska jego pryncypała Zbigniewa Ziobry została ze stron internetowych Jakiego starannie wygumkowana. Słusznie. Zwolennicy Jakiego i tak świetnie to wiedzą, a PiS zawsze przegrywa wybory w Warszawie. Lepiej zdystansować się od wizerunku partyjnego działacza i postawić na dorobek ministerialny.

Patryk Jaki chce reprezentować „nowe pokolenie w polityce”. Spoiwem między wielką polityką a Warszawą jest w jego kampanii komisja weryfikacyjna ds. reprywatyzacji. Inne dokonania, jakimi się chwali, to zakaz odbierania dzieci z powodu ubóstwa, rejestr pedofilów, praca więźniów, dozór elektroniczny, walka z cofaniem liczników sprzedawanych samochodów itp. Walczy więc o sprawiedliwość i zarazem o interesy miasta.

Trzaskowski ma sporo racji, gdy ocenia kampanię kontrkandydata jako brutalną, w której „nie cofają się przed niczym i wszystko przechodzi”. Jaki ogłosił się nawet kibicem Legii Warszawa, choć to jawna blaga. Nie wstydzi się tanich chwytów propagandowych. Właśnie ogłosił, że został Człowiekiem Roku 2017 w kategorii „samorządność i społeczność lokalna”. Scena, kwiaty, statuetka, widownia klaszcze.
Tylko wnikliwy czytelnik doczyta w pochwalnym artykule, że cała feta to fake. Nagrodę przyznaje „Nowa Trybuna Opolska” za zasługi dla regionu. Jaki otrzymał ją za… skuteczny lobbing na rzecz Opola w Warszawie. A jest to nic innego niż wykorzystanie partyjnych wpływów, by zmusić państwowe spółki do sponsorowania opolskich drużyn sportowych. Odra Opole dostała pieniądze od Zakładów Azotowych Kędzierzyn, a Gwardia Opole – od PGE.
Czy nagroda Człowieka Roku w kontekście politycznego kumoterstwa wśród partyjnych kolegów może pomóc w zdobyciu prezydentury Warszawy? Chyba nie, ale jest parę ale. Po pierwsze, nawet sztab konkurentów nie wykorzystuje tej oczywistej wpadki, mimo że ujawnienie praktyk Jakiego może przecież zniweczyć starannie budowany mit warszawiaka. Po drugie, nie samą Warszawą człowiek żyje. Trzeba wszak dbać o swój okręg poselski, a nic tak dobrze elektoratowi nie robi jak okazanie mu wdzięczności.

Jak to się nie da, kiedy się da!

Jaki nie waha się, „idzie po bandzie”, wykorzystując ospałość przeciwników. Program ma prosty – obiecuje wszystko wszystkim. Seniorom – opiekę; modernistom – smart city, tj. ekologiczne i sprawnie zarządzane miasto; kierowcom – mosty i drugą obwodnicę; biznesowi – innowacje (choć nie wiadomo, skąd miałyby się wziąć); matkom – 50 przedszkoli i żłobków (choć są stołeczne dzielnice, jak Śródmieście, gdzie przedszkoli jest nadmiar). Ociera się o śmieszność, kiedy np. właścicielom zwierząt obiecuje program „Warszawa dla zwierząt”, czyli dopłatę za adopcję psa.
Sprzeczności są bez znaczenia. Spójnej wizji nie ma, jakby nie istniały dylematy rozwojowe współczesnego miasta. Jakby budżet był nieograniczony. PiS i jego partie przyboczne nauczyły się po ostatnich sukcesach wyborczych, że kluczem do władzy są obietnice. Logika ich nie ogranicza, logika ich nie obowiązuje.
Co ważne, strategia ta spycha zdroworozsądkowych, odpowiedzialnych liberałów do tłumaczenia się i zaprzeczeń. Powtarzają jak nakręceni: tego się nie da, to niemożliwe, wytykają sprzeczności, ujawniają nieprawdy i stają się, chcąc nie chcąc, nieskuteczni, bo ubezwłasnowolnieni. Mówią wyłącznie o programie przeciwnika, i to jego językiem, poprzez negację popularyzując jego postulaty. A z drugiej strony wyborca słyszy sakramentalne: jak to się nie da, kiedy się da! I jeśli ma do wyboru: spróbować lub nie, wybiera obietnice, bo a nuż się jednak da. Czemu nie dać im szansy.

A liberalny kandydat ma związane ręce. Trzaskowski jest przekonany, że nie wolno mu nawet ułamka tego, co robi Jaki: – Rozszarpaliby mnie natychmiast.
Jest to problem wyborów w Warszawie i wszystkich następnych. Co zaproponować wyborcom, co nie jest czystym populizmem i zestawem sprzecznych obietnic (nam nie wolno tego, co im uchodzi płazem) i nie popaść w czystą negację, stając się mimowolnym sojusznikiem swoich przeciwników.

Jaki obieca wszystko wszystkim

Trzaskowski ma dodatkowy problem. Jako partyjny towarzysz Hanny Gronkiewicz-Waltz i były szef jej sztabu wyborczego jest łatwym celem ataku. Otoczenie prezydent Warszawy zarzuca potencjalnemu następcy, że nie czerpie z dorobku obecnej administracji. Słyszę od nich: – Mamy osiągnięcia, na których można budować. Infrastruktura, najlepszy na świecie transport publiczny, metro, żłobki, przedszkola itp. Rafał to wszystko wyrzuca do kosza. Jakby zaczynał od zera. Dochodzi do idiotycznych paradoksów, że to Jaki fotografuje się na bulwarach wiślanych, jakby to on je wybudował. To idiotyzm!
Trzaskowski odpiera te zarzuty: – Reprywatyzacja jest tak toksyczna, że muszę się odkleić od tych zabójczych szponów. Zrobimy kampanię w Warszawie, ale to ratusz musi się pochwalić osiągnięciami, nie ja.
Ryzykowana strategia, bo wyborca może nie skleić tych opowieści w całość. Plan jest dobry. Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz zbudowała w Warszawie infrastrukturę, teraz czas na jakość życia. To jakby dalekie echa manifestu Trzaskowskiego po głośnych badaniach w Miastku socjologa Macieja Gduli. Należy ogłosić koniec transformacji i zająć się jakością życia Polaków.
Jednak to, czy ten plan wypali – zależy od realizacji. Skomplikowana taktyka może nie trafić do wyborców, a wtedy kandydat PO startowałby z pozycji zero, jakby jego partia nie miała ogromnego dorobku i niewątpliwych zasług dla miasta.

PiS w swoich brutalnych kampaniach wyborczych bardzo często posługuje się moralnym szantażem, paraliżując działania przeciwnika. Na osiągnięcie takiego efektu obliczone jest podgrzewanie afery reprywatyzacyjnej. Mimo że ciągnęła się latami, równie intensywnie za rządów w stolicy Lecha Kaczyńskiego, który dla prawicy ma status świętego, to taktyka wciskania afery w ręce przeciwników wydaje się skuteczna. Szefem komisji, która z tą aferą ma się rozprawić, nie przypadkiem jest Jaki.

Odpowiedzialny program dla Warszawy musi ukazywać wyborcom rzeczywiste dylematy. Najlepiej to widać w sprawie rozwoju komunikacji w mieście. Jaki mówi o pięciu mostach i nowych drogach czy likwidacji słupków parkingowych. Paradoksalnie, to on stawia się w pozycji kontynuatora infrastrukturalnej polityki Gronkiewicz-Waltz. Trudno jednak racjonalnie dyskutować z tymi postulatami. Są bowiem nierealne, dla miasta zabójcze i kompletnie anachroniczne.
Współczesne miasta ograniczają ruch kołowy w walce ze smogiem i korkami. Nigdzie na świecie nie udało się wybudować infrastruktury miejskiej w takiej skali, by skutecznie obsłużyć ruch oparty na indywidualnych środkach transportu. Liczba samochodów rośnie szybciej niż przepustowość największych nawet autostrad. Los Angeles jest najlepszym przykładem miasta, które z ruchem nie daje sobie rady, choć dysponuje dwunastopasmowymi autostradami. Wszystkie są stale zakorkowane.
Do tego problem parkingów. Warszawa nie ma miejsca na masowe parkingi w centrum miasta. Budowa podziemnych jest droga, nieopłacalna i długotrwała. Współczesne miasta ograniczają ruch, stawiając na transport publiczny. Najbardziej radykalne (Oslo) zamykają swoje centra w ogóle. No tak, ale jak tę prawdę powiedzieć kierowcom?
Jaki obieca wszystko wszystkim, powieka mu nie zadrży, a media go nie rozliczą. Populista – wiadomo. A co ma zrobić Trzaskowski? Obiecać nie może, bo własne zaplecze natychmiast go rozliczy, prawda może zrazić do niego 30 proc. warszawiaków, którzy codziennie dojeżdżają do pracy samochodem. Takich dylematów jest mnóstwo.

Program to nie doktorat

Rafał Trzaskowski może obawiać się jeszcze ataku z lewej flanki – ze strony ruchów miejskich, rosnącego w siłę SLD i Partii Razem. Wyborcy tych partii i ruchów społecznych nigdy na Jakiego nie zagłosują, odbiorą natomiast głosy Trzaskowskiemu. Stąd ruch kandydata Koalicji Obywatelskiej polegający na zgłoszeniu postulatów lewicowych: programu in vitro, całodobowej opieki ginekologicznej, gwarancji dostępności opieki przedszkolnej w całej Warszawie, koniec z dyskryminacją kobiet itp. W ten sposób Trzaskowski uprzedził konkurencję z lewej strony, próbując ograniczyć jej pole działania.
Niestety, kampania Trzaskowskiego ma tę samą wadę co wszystkie kampanie liberalnych kandydatów do tej pory. Jest niemiłosiernie przegadana. Jaki przedstawia swój program w paru prostych punktach (obietnicach). Trzaskowski zaś na każdy temat „się doktoryzuje”. Rozdział „Warszawa dla kobiet” ma sześć stron bitego tekstu, „Zaplanowana Warszawa” – osiem, itd. Razem: osiem rozdziałów i 51 stron.
Zestaw dla ekspertów. Dla wyborcy nie ma nic. Żadnej syntezy. Choć wydawało się, że po ostatniej kampanii opartej przez zwycięską partię na trzech nośnych postulatach wbijanych ludziom do głowy każdego dnia, czegoś się liberalni demokraci od przeciwników nauczą. Niestety. Powtarzają te same błędy, choć Trzaskowski obiecuje poprawę. Zobaczymy.

Nadzieją napawa jego nadzwyczajna aktywność. Do dziś – jak mówi – odbył ponad 130 spotkań. Od rozmów z mieszkańcami przy ławce, po dzielnicowe wiece gromadzące od 100 do 350 osób. Kampania, choć mało widoczna w mediach, opiera się na mikrotargetowaniu. Trzaskowski spotyka się z konkretnymi mieszkańcami w konkretnych sprawach. Od centralnego ogrzewania na Pradze Północ, poprzez utwardzenie ulic w Wesołej, po skwer parkowy na Żoliborzu.
Taktyka ta mogłaby być lepiej wspierana w mediach społecznościowych. Według raportu „Newsweeka” Jaki i Trzaskowski idą łeb w łeb na Facebooku, ale ten pierwszy dominuje na Twitterze. Co gorsza, dysponuje bardzo zdyscyplinowaną, gotową nadać każdy aktualny przekaz dnia jego sztabu machiną partyjnej i państwowej propagandy. Trzaskowski nie może liczyć na takie wsparcie po przeciwnej stronie medialnego spektrum. Dziennikarze liberalnych mediów zazwyczaj „wybijają się na niezależność”, szukając poklasku, uwielbiają krytykować i prowokować kandydatów opozycji. Przewaga Jakiego w mediach ogólnopolskich jest więc przytłaczająca.

Jesteśmy w rozsypce

Warszawa skupia jak w soczewce wszystkie błędy i przewagi obu stron zaciekle walczących o serca i umysły wyborców. Na razie Trzaskowski prowadzi w sondażach. Od listopada zeszłego roku, gdy opublikowano pierwszy sondaż – 35 proc. poparcia dla Trzaskowskiego, 29 proc. dla Jakiego – notowania kandydata PO rosną. W styczniu ta sama pracownia podawała 48 proc. dla Trzaskowskiego i 34 proc. dla Jakiego. W kwietniu Kantar Public podał 38 do 23 proc., a pod koniec czerwca – 43 do 21 proc.
Nie ma powodów do niepokoju? Wręcz przeciwnie. Jak widać z powyższej analizy, liberalno-demokratyczna strona popełnia stale te same błędy.

Po pierwsze, niezależnie od tego, czy prawdziwa jest opowieść o topieniu Trzaskowskiego przez Schetynę, czy nie, w Koalicji Obywatelskiej panuje totalne rozprzężenie, konflikty wewnętrzne i brak wiary w zwycięstwo. Nie jest to zwarta i gotowa armia żołnierzy autorytarnej władzy Jarosława Kaczyńskiego. Indywidualne ambicje działaczy będą nadal dzieliły scenę polityczną – nie tylko w Warszawie, lecz także w całym kraju.Po drugie, widoczny jest brak języka, brak determinacji i – co tu dużo mówić – bezczelności, z jaką szafują obietnicami przeciwnicy. Po trzecie, strona opozycyjna łatwo popada w pułapkę negatywnego języka, stając się mimowolnym sprzymierzeńcem autorytarystów. Po czwarte, komunikat opozycji jest przegadany, brak syntezy głównych tez, które wyborca mógłby zapamiętać, by sąsiadowi uzasadnić swój wybór.

Siłą kampanii Trzaskowskiego jest bezpośredni kontakt z ludźmi, okazywanie im uwagi, szacunku i zaangażowania. Ale to, co działa w Warszawie, nie da się powtórzyć w całej Polsce. Trzaskowski prawdopodobnie wygra wybory w Warszawie. Jeśli tak, to będzie zawdzięczał zwycięstwo wyłącznie samemu sobie. Kampania toczy się poza partią, bez wsparcia ratusza i wbrew krytycznym mediom – rządowym, ale, co gorsza, także liberalnym. Popularny, inteligentny i pracowity kandydat obozu demokratycznego nawet w liberalnej Warszawie nie może liczyć na jednoznaczne poparcie własnego zaplecza intelektualnego.

Gorzka prawda jest taka, że jesteśmy w rozsypce. Dla wyników wyborów parlamentarnych nie wróży to dobrze. Chyba że Kaczyński zacznie grzebać w ordynacji wyborczej, by zapewnić sobie dozgonną władzę. Wtedy, paradoksalnie, może zmusić opozycję do współdziałania. Po prostu presja będzie zbyt duża. Jeśli tak się stanie, przegra. Mam nadzieję, że nie będzie umiał się powstrzymać.

Jakub Bierzyński

Komentarze

J.Slotala

23 lipca 2018

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